The Rev. Keith B. Brown's Take on Growth/Decline in ECUSA
The Rev. Keith B. Brown's Take on Growth/Decline in ECUSA
From: Keith Brown KBBrown4545@msn.com
Date: Wed, 31 Jul 2002 21:27:25 -0700
Subject: my take on "plus or minus"
Louie,
I have followed with interest the debate on the "plus or minus" debate on
your Bishops-Deputies list.
Theology, demographics, may play a role in growth and decline but I think
another variable has such significance that it overwhelms most others:
average Sunday attendance (ASA). Looking at the ECUSA ASA data from
1996-2000 for individual parishes and missions, churches above 100 ASA
collectively show growth while those below 100 ASA collectively are in
decline. (You may wish to refer back to the projections charts I sent
that suggest that not only is this true but that the larger a church is
in ASA over 100, the higher its rate of growth; conversely the more it is
below 100 the higher the rate of decline. This is not a radical finding
and seems quite consistent with the experience of other denominations (In
fact others find the growth threshold for other denominations to be a
higher number such as 150).
In my book I argued that for a parish with an average ECUSA giving rate,
the breakeven point for a parish with a full time priest is about 110
ASA, About half of our full time clergy with cure serve in parishes with
an ASA below this point. I believe that most of these smaller
congregation suffer from "conflicted expectations"; i.e. the members want
to remain at a level of comfort where "everyone knows everyone" but
nevertheless want to have youth programs, good youth and adult
education, music, outreach, and expect the priest to do the majority of
the pastoral work. In other words they desire program church quality and
program on a budget that cannot support the expectations. I suspect that
this is also a factor in a decline in the average clergy tenure in ECUSA.
Needless to say, I am most concerned about how this data raises questions
of clergy wellness issues for such a significant number of our clergy!
What does this mean for the specific comparison of Newark and Texas? In
approximate figures the mean ASA per congregation in Newark in 1997
was about 99; in Texas it was over 180. (Personally I am convinced that
Bishop Claude Payne and Canon Kevin Martin were also significant factors
in the ability of the Diocese of Texas to have grown as it has!) As I
look at growth and decline figures generally, I believe that the dioceses
with larger mean ASA's do tend to be the ones that show the largest
growth. By contrast, consider the challenges of Province V where the
1993 mean ASA for all congregations for the entire province was only 62.
By the way, the 1993 mean congregational ASA for Province II of which
Newark is part was 99 and Province VII of which Texas is part was 126.
I have attached a couple of data sheets and charts that I have worked up
this year in my role as a consultant for the Church Pension Group which
you may find of interest.
Please sign my guestbook and
view it.