The Models

The models referenced in Reawakening are an evolution of ideas Professor Rosenberg has developed since he began work on an economical framework to help solve the problems of the Middle East.  Initially created around the idea of JIPTA, or the Jordanian-Israeli-Palestinian Trade Agreement, the models look to build ever growing layers of economic interdependence throughout the region based on increasing levels of trade interdependence.

With the reclassification of the Broader Middle East to include the Central Asian states, as well as North Africa and the traditional Middle East, Professor Rosenberg's models now look for an eventual interdependent union which will encompass 28 nations and half a billion people.

   

  Timeline comparison of progression in Western Europe vs. Middle East

Two Models

Two models for the eventual creation of MENACAFTA exist due to the realities on the ground.  While the fundamental ideal for establishment of peace accords via economic integration would begin with Israel and Palestine, the reality of such an effort may be unrealistic.

The second model recognizes this fact and instead offers that the overall model can still succeed without an initial buy-in by Israel, or any other country for that matter.

The key to success, as discussed and highlighted throughout Reawakening, is the creation of the initial Trade Agreement bloc of three countries which must be both internationally supported by Marshall Plan-like funding, and wildly successful.  Once success and prosperity is present, other neighboring countries will become more interested in participating in the new trade agreement.  As new members join and reap the same rewards that the initial members are enjoying, more and more regional countries will seek entry, thus propagating growing levels of economic integration. 

Though this may seem simplistic, one must keep in mind that the European Union, which today includes 27 countries made up of 493 million people, and has a combined GDP of $14.2 trillion, started as a Common Market agreement between West Germany, France, Italy, and the Benelux (Belgium, The Netherlands, and Luxembourg) countries.

 

Models

Click each model to see a larger version

 

Model 1

 

Model 2